How the Majlis settles.
Decided by a record
Every Majlis question is decided by something written down before anyone answers or after the market closes: a stock’s own past prices, or an official closing level. Nobody at Tasilab picks a winner, and every member sees only their own result. There is no ranking.
The history question
Each night at 6:00 PM AST the Majlis asks what happened after a pattern in a stock’s own past daily closing prices. The answer is computed from that history when the question opens, and it is published at 10:00 AST the next trading day. It describes the past, not tomorrow.
Guess the odds
Some nights ask for a number out of 100, picked as a range of ten. The answer is the share of past cases that went one way, computed the same way as the history question. A call is described by how many ranges it was from that number.
Opinion polls
A poll has no right answer. Its result is the traders’ view: the split of counted answers, published at 10:00 AST.
“To where?”
“To where?” asks where the TASI index closes on a named session the following week, usually its last session. Members pick a level in 10-point steps within 5% of the night’s close; the two end rows mean “or lower” and “or higher”. Calls close at 09:30 AST before the next open, and the crowd’s middle call is published at 10:00. The question settles on the named session’s official close. Each member then sees the close, their call and the distance in points between them, and nothing else.
“Bounce or break?”
“Bounce or break?” is a yes-or-no call on one of the 30 most traded stocks (or on TASI crossing a round thousand), asked about what the stock just did: a run of down days, a 52-week high, a level it keeps touching, a gap. The question prints its level, the sessions that decide it (the next session, or up to five), and a one-sentence rule that names the equal case. Calls close at 09:30 AST before the next open, and the Majlis split is published at 10:00. It settles on the stock’s confirmed official closes, as traded: “at least once” is decided by the first close that qualifies, “every close” by the first that fails. If a close moves more than 10% from the one before it (a split, a bonus or a rights issue) or the stock does not trade, up to the deciding session, the question does not complete. Each member then sees the outcome, the closes and their own call, and nothing else.
One “Bounce or break?” question starts from a licensed research house’s published rating and price target: does the stock close at or above the target on any session up to a stated date, at most 60 sessions away? The question names the house, its rating, the target and the date the rating was published, with a link to the source. The rating and the target are the house’s own, published on that date, not Tasilab’s; the Majlis only asks whether the closes reach the target. It settles like every “Bounce or break?” question, on the first official close at or above the target.
“What if?”
“What if?” asks what an amount put into one of the 30 most traded stocks at the close of a past session was worth at the close of a later one, usually the latest session settled when the question was written. The question prints the stock, the start session, the amount (a multiple of SAR 1,000, from 1,000 to 50,000), the end session, and whether it counts prices alone or dividends reinvested. Its picture shows the stock’s last 30 closes only; the growth across the window appears with the answer.
The arithmetic follows five rules, printed under every answer and in the calculator:
- The start is the first session on or after the chosen date, and the end session is named on the question.
- The amount buys fractional shares at the start session’s close, with no cash left over.
- Values are computed on split-adjusted closing prices, so no split or bonus ratio is applied a second time.
- With dividends reinvested, each verified cash dividend buys more shares at the close of its ex-dividend date. On prices alone, dividends are not included.
- The value is rounded to the nearest riyal once, at the end. Past values only, no fees or tax.
Only verified dividends count: each cash dividend is checked against the company’s announcement and put on today’s share basis by the verified bonus issues and splits that followed it. A stock whose dividends are not verified for the whole window is asked on prices alone.
A call is a whole number of riyals from one hundredth of the amount to 20 times the amount, in steps of one hundredth: SAR 100 to SAR 200,000 in steps of SAR 100 on SAR 10,000. The range is fixed by the amount alone, so it says nothing about the answer. The crowd card counts calls in fixed bins: 0, 0.5, 0.75, 1, 1.25, 1.5, 2, 3, 5, 10 and 20 times the amount.
The answer is computed when the question is approved, then the prices are fetched again from a third-party market data provider and it is computed a second time; the two must agree. At 10:00 AST the next trading day calls close and the answer is computed once more on the stored prices. If anything changed, the answer waits for a check instead of being published. Once it is published, the Majlis median call shows from 50 counted calls, and each member sees the answer, their call and the distance between them in riyals; from 10 counted calls, also the share of counted calls that were further away. The calculator reproduces every published answer on the exact prices it was computed on.
“Which one?”
“Which one?” offers two to four picks: stocks from the 30 most traded, the exchange’s sector indices, or TASI itself. Each member picks the one they think does best from the night’s official close to the official close of a named session, at most five sessions later, usually the last session of the week. The question prints each pick with a line of its last 30 closes, the window and the rule. Calls close at 09:30 AST before the next open, and the Majlis split per pick is published at 10:00.
Each pick’s return is its official close on the named session divided by its official close on the night, minus 1, computed to 4 decimals on the closes Tasilab records and confirms. The highest return does best. Returns equal to 4 decimals are a tie, and every tied pick is named. Dividends are not counted: it is the price alone. On screen, returns show to 2 decimals.
The question does not complete if a pick’s close on the night was not recorded, if a pick has a dividend or a change in its share count (a split, a bonus issue or a rights issue) inside the window, if a stock moves more than 10% between two sessions of the window, or if a pick has no close on the named session. Each member then sees every pick’s return, the one that did best, the closes behind them and their own pick, and nothing else.
How a close is confirmed
When a session ends, Tasilab records the close of TASI, of the exchange’s sector indices and of each of the 30 most traded stocks from a third-party market data provider. At 07:30 AST after the session it is checked again: it must be unchanged, and within 0.25% of the session’s last hourly price. Only then is it confirmed and used. If the check fails, the result waits, and the close is entered by hand from the exchange’s published figure. Results appear once the official close is confirmed, with a notification at 6:00 PM that day.
What counts
- A counted call comes from a verified member and was made before the lock.
- The crowd’s number appears only from 50 counted calls.
- A crowd card can be held for review when calls arrive in an unusual burst or cluster; it shows counts only until it is reviewed.
Not advice
The Majlis is educational. Tasilab is a paper-trading sandbox for the Saudi Exchange: no real orders are placed, and Tasilab is not licensed by the Capital Market Authority. Nothing here is investment advice.